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    Photovoltaic domestic installed capacity will return to the right track, foreign demand is growing rapidly, close to the era of parity

    Photovoltaic domestic installed capacity will return to the right track, foreign demand is growing rapidly, close to the era of parity

    • Categories:Company News
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    • Time of issue:2020-04-24 11:56
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    (Summary description)After the "11.2" meeting of the Energy Bureau, the prosperity of the photovoltaic industry picked up noticeably. The adjustment policy will provide impetus for the sustainable and steady development of the photovoltaic industry. In 2019, we conservatively estimate the new scale to be around 40GW. The export data of photovoltaic products in 2018 is eye-catching, and it is expected to maintain this growth trend in the future. India, the United States, and Europe have seen significant growth, with foreign market demand expected to be around 80GW in 2019. 1. The domestic market in 2019 will be back on track 2018 is destined to be an extraordinary year for the photovoltaic industry. From the "5.31" New Deal to the "11.02" Energy Bureau meeting, the photovoltaic industry has experienced huge fluctuations and the industry chain prices have generally fallen by about 30%. The photovoltaic "531" New Deal brought the price of the industrial chain to a low level in a short period of time, relieved the pressure of subsidies, and inadvertently accelerated the arrival of the era of parity online. In 2018, the cumulative installed capacity was 44.26GW, down 19.7% year-on-year, of which centralized 23.3GW and distributed 20.96GW. It can be seen that after "5.31", the domestic installation has slowed down significantly, and the bright spot is that the distributed share has further increased. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau have recently issued the "Clean Energy Consumption Action Plan (2018-2020)", which calls for significant results in clean energy consumption in 2018. By 2020, the issue of clean energy consumption will be basically resolved. According to the action plan, in the next three years, it is necessary to ensure that the national average utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation is higher than 95%, and the light rejection rate is lower than 5%. In the past three years, the photovoltaic abandonment rate has dropped significantly and entered a reasonable range. 光伏国内装机将重回正轨,国外需求增长迅速,接近平价时代 We believe that the country's determination to continue to promote the development of new energy and the consumption of new energy power has not changed. The "5.31" correction has been unanimously approved by the entire market. At present, the electricity price adjustment policy and construction scale plan have given the market clear expectations, and these adjustment policies will provide impetus for the continued stable development of the photovoltaic industry. Second, the export data is dazzling, and the overseas market has vast space According to CPIA data, the total export of photovoltaic products in 2018 was 16.11 billion US dollars, an increase of 10.9% year-on-year. The module export was 41GW, a year-on-year increase of 30%. Wafers and solar cells were affected by the price decline, the export price decreased and the export volume and export volume of components both increased, and the proportion also increased from 71.9% to 80.6%. 2 In 2018, the photovoltaic market in the US increased by 10.6GW. It is estimated that the installed capacity of photovoltaics in the United States in 2019 will be around 12GW. In the next five years, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in the United States will double. By 2023, the annual installed capacity of the United States will reach 14GW. European market: On September 3, 2018, the European Union ended its five-year double reversal against China and canceled the minimum price restriction clause (MIP) against China. In 2017, Europe installed 8GW, most of the components came from Southeast Asia and Taiwan, and China's exports accounted for only about 25%. In 2018, the overall installed capacity of Europe was 11GW, and the demand growth was obvious. IEA expects that the new installed capacity of new energy in Europe is expected to double. It is expected that the decline in component prices will stimulate an average of 3-5GW of new installed capacity per year. Three, parity is approaching, high-efficiency batteries are still the core of cost reduction After the new photovoltaic policy in 2018, both domestic component prices and BOS costs have dropped significantly. At present, the components have gradually fallen into the 2 yuan / W range, and the system cost has gradually entered the 4-4.5 yuan / W range. For large-scale power stations with a determined installation capacity, the use of high-power components can reduce the number of components used, and correspondingly reduce the construction and installation costs of ground piles, supports, DC cables, junction boxes, and photovoltaic fields. We believe that for large-scale ground-mounted photovoltaic power plants, priority should be given to high-power, high-quality components to better reduce BOS costs. 光伏国内装机将重回正轨,国外需求增长迅速,接近平价时代 At present, the average value of China's residential electricity price, large industrial electricity price and industrial and commercial electricity p

    Photovoltaic domestic installed capacity will return to the right track, foreign demand is growing rapidly, close to the era of parity

    (Summary description)After the "11.2" meeting of the Energy Bureau, the prosperity of the photovoltaic industry picked up noticeably. The adjustment policy will provide impetus for the sustainable and steady development of the photovoltaic industry. In 2019, we conservatively estimate the new scale to be around 40GW. The export data of photovoltaic products in 2018 is eye-catching, and it is expected to maintain this growth trend in the future. India, the United States, and Europe have seen significant growth, with foreign market demand expected to be around 80GW in 2019.

    1. The domestic market in 2019 will be back on track

    2018 is destined to be an extraordinary year for the photovoltaic industry. From the "5.31" New Deal to the "11.02" Energy Bureau meeting, the photovoltaic industry has experienced huge fluctuations and the industry chain prices have generally fallen by about 30%. The photovoltaic "531" New Deal brought the price of the industrial chain to a low level in a short period of time, relieved the pressure of subsidies, and inadvertently accelerated the arrival of the era of parity online.

    In 2018, the cumulative installed capacity was 44.26GW, down 19.7% year-on-year, of which centralized 23.3GW and distributed 20.96GW. It can be seen that after "5.31", the domestic installation has slowed down significantly, and the bright spot is that the distributed share has further increased.

    The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau have recently issued the "Clean Energy Consumption Action Plan (2018-2020)", which calls for significant results in clean energy consumption in 2018. By 2020, the issue of clean energy consumption will be basically resolved. According to the action plan, in the next three years, it is necessary to ensure that the national average utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation is higher than 95%, and the light rejection rate is lower than 5%. In the past three years, the photovoltaic abandonment rate has dropped significantly and entered a reasonable range.

    光伏国内装机将重回正轨,国外需求增长迅速,接近平价时代

    We believe that the country's determination to continue to promote the development of new energy and the consumption of new energy power has not changed. The "5.31" correction has been unanimously approved by the entire market. At present, the electricity price adjustment policy and construction scale plan have given the market clear expectations, and these adjustment policies will provide impetus for the continued stable development of the photovoltaic industry.

    Second, the export data is dazzling, and the overseas market has vast space

    According to CPIA data, the total export of photovoltaic products in 2018 was 16.11 billion US dollars, an increase of 10.9% year-on-year. The module export was 41GW, a year-on-year increase of 30%. Wafers and solar cells were affected by the price decline, the export price decreased and the export volume and export volume of components both increased, and the proportion also increased from 71.9% to 80.6%.

    2

    In 2018, the photovoltaic market in the US increased by 10.6GW. It is estimated that the installed capacity of photovoltaics in the United States in 2019 will be around 12GW. In the next five years, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in the United States will double. By 2023, the annual installed capacity of the United States will reach 14GW.

    European market: On September 3, 2018, the European Union ended its five-year double reversal against China and canceled the minimum price restriction clause (MIP) against China. In 2017, Europe installed 8GW, most of the components came from Southeast Asia and Taiwan, and China's exports accounted for only about 25%. In 2018, the overall installed capacity of Europe was 11GW, and the demand growth was obvious. IEA expects that the new installed capacity of new energy in Europe is expected to double. It is expected that the decline in component prices will stimulate an average of 3-5GW of new installed capacity per year.

    Three, parity is approaching, high-efficiency batteries are still the core of cost reduction

    After the new photovoltaic policy in 2018, both domestic component prices and BOS costs have dropped significantly. At present, the components have gradually fallen into the 2 yuan / W range, and the system cost has gradually entered the 4-4.5 yuan / W range. For large-scale power stations with a determined installation capacity, the use of high-power components can reduce the number of components used, and correspondingly reduce the construction and installation costs of ground piles, supports, DC cables, junction boxes, and photovoltaic fields. We believe that for large-scale ground-mounted photovoltaic power plants, priority should be given to high-power, high-quality components to better reduce BOS costs.

    光伏国内装机将重回正轨,国外需求增长迅速,接近平价时代

    At present, the average value of China's residential electricity price, large industrial electricity price and industrial and commercial electricity p

    • Categories:Company News
    • Author:
    • Origin:
    • Time of issue:2020-04-24 11:56
    • Views:
    Information

    After the "11.2" meeting of the Energy Bureau, the prosperity of the photovoltaic industry picked up noticeably. The adjustment policy will provide impetus for the sustainable and steady development of the photovoltaic industry. In 2019, we conservatively estimate the new scale to be around 40GW. The export data of photovoltaic products in 2018 is eye-catching, and it is expected to maintain this growth trend in the future. India, the United States, and Europe have seen significant growth, with foreign market demand expected to be around 80GW in 2019.

    1. The domestic market in 2019 will be back on track

    2018 is destined to be an extraordinary year for the photovoltaic industry. From the "5.31" New Deal to the "11.02" Energy Bureau meeting, the photovoltaic industry has experienced huge fluctuations and the industry chain prices have generally fallen by about 30%. The photovoltaic "531" New Deal brought the price of the industrial chain to a low level in a short period of time, relieved the pressure of subsidies, and inadvertently accelerated the arrival of the era of parity online.

    In 2018, the cumulative installed capacity was 44.26GW, down 19.7% year-on-year, of which centralized 23.3GW and distributed 20.96GW. It can be seen that after "5.31", the domestic installation has slowed down significantly, and the bright spot is that the distributed share has further increased.

    The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau have recently issued the "Clean Energy Consumption Action Plan (2018-2020)", which calls for significant results in clean energy consumption in 2018. By 2020, the issue of clean energy consumption will be basically resolved. According to the action plan, in the next three years, it is necessary to ensure that the national average utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation is higher than 95%, and the light rejection rate is lower than 5%. In the past three years, the photovoltaic abandonment rate has dropped significantly and entered a reasonable range.

    光伏国内装机将重回正轨,国外需求增长迅速,接近平价时代

    We believe that the country's determination to continue to promote the development of new energy and the consumption of new energy power has not changed. The "5.31" correction has been unanimously approved by the entire market. At present, the electricity price adjustment policy and construction scale plan have given the market clear expectations, and these adjustment policies will provide impetus for the continued stable development of the photovoltaic industry.

    Second, the export data is dazzling, and the overseas market has vast space

    According to CPIA data, the total export of photovoltaic products in 2018 was 16.11 billion US dollars, an increase of 10.9% year-on-year. The module export was 41GW, a year-on-year increase of 30%. Wafers and solar cells were affected by the price decline, the export price decreased and the export volume and export volume of components both increased, and the proportion also increased from 71.9% to 80.6%.

    2

    In 2018, the photovoltaic market in the US increased by 10.6GW. It is estimated that the installed capacity of photovoltaics in the United States in 2019 will be around 12GW. In the next five years, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in the United States will double. By 2023, the annual installed capacity of the United States will reach 14GW.

    European market: On September 3, 2018, the European Union ended its five-year double reversal against China and canceled the minimum price restriction clause (MIP) against China. In 2017, Europe installed 8GW, most of the components came from Southeast Asia and Taiwan, and China's exports accounted for only about 25%. In 2018, the overall installed capacity of Europe was 11GW, and the demand growth was obvious. IEA expects that the new installed capacity of new energy in Europe is expected to double. It is expected that the decline in component prices will stimulate an average of 3-5GW of new installed capacity per year.

    Three, parity is approaching, high-efficiency batteries are still the core of cost reduction

    After the new photovoltaic policy in 2018, both domestic component prices and BOS costs have dropped significantly. At present, the components have gradually fallen into the 2 yuan / W range, and the system cost has gradually entered the 4-4.5 yuan / W range. For large-scale power stations with a determined installation capacity, the use of high-power components can reduce the number of components used, and correspondingly reduce the construction and installation costs of ground piles, supports, DC cables, junction boxes, and photovoltaic fields. We believe that for large-scale ground-mounted photovoltaic power plants, priority should be given to high-power, high-quality components to better reduce BOS costs.

    光伏国内装机将重回正轨,国外需求增长迅速,接近平价时代

    At present, the average value of China's residential electricity price, large industrial electricity price and industrial and commercial electricity price are 0.52 yuan / KWh, 0.61 yuan / KWh and 0.83 yuan / KWh, respectively, and PV has achieved parity on the user side. On the power generation side, the domestic leader project has played an active role in promoting the project, and the bidding price of the project is the highest weighted indicator (accounting for 35%). Overall, the average feed-in price of the third batch of runners was 0.427 yuan / KWh, the average subsidy was 0.081 yuan / KWh, the average subsidy reduction was 0.365 yuan KWh, and the average subsidy reduction was over 80%. Golmud and Delingha reported minimum electricity prices of 0.31 yuan / KWh and 0.32 yuan / KWh, respectively, which were lower than the local desulfurized coal power prices of 0.3247 yuan / KWh. The parity on the power generation side is now dawning.

    Among the first batch of affordable grid projects in China recently, photovoltaic power generation projects accounted for about 15GW. At present, in the "Three North" UHV supporting photovoltaic project has been able to achieve parity.

    We believe that the road to cost reduction in the future will still focus on high-efficiency batteries. The PERC technology has a simple structure, and the production line is easy to transform. It only needs to add two steps of coating and laser scribing on the basis of the existing process. The technical difficulty is relatively small, and the equipment investment cost is low. It is the first choice for an efficient battery path in the industry. At this stage, P-type batteries have an absolute advantage in PERC batteries, but P-type components have light decay. N-type components have no light attenuation, and the advantages of efficiency stability are obvious. In the future, market requirements for component efficiency and stability will continue to increase. N-type is more suitable for making high-efficiency batteries, which is an important development direction for improving battery efficiency. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the market share of N-type monocrystalline batteries will increase from 3.5% in 2016 to 30% in 2025. In recent years, a number of high-efficiency crystalline silicon batteries such as wet process black silicon (MCCE), backside passivation (PERC), heterojunction cell (HIT), full back electrode contact crystalline silicon photovoltaic cell (IBC) technology, N-type double-sided, etc. Technology continues to emerge, opening the way for future cost reductions.

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